The murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson is certainly one of the most talked-about events right now. While many were shaken by the brutal killing, fearing that it highlighted increasing lawlessness, there were also some people online who actually showed sympathy for the killer.
For Polymarket, it’s business as usual.
Mangione Is Believed to Be Behind the Murder
On Tuesday, Luigi Mangione, 26, the suspect behind the murder of Thompson was arrested at a McDonald’s in Altoona, Pennsylvania, after an employee tipped off the police about him. According to reports, authorities found a manifesto, a 3D-printed gun and multiple fake IDs on Mangione.
The manifesto allegedly describes the killing as a challenge to the current power structure and rampant corruption in UnitedHealthcare. As a result, the young man is currently being charged with murder in New York. He also faces charges of forging a document and illegally owning a firearm.
A few hours later, the first betting options were launched.
Betting on Mangione Appeared Soon
Shortly after the arrest, markets related to Mangione and his sentencing appeared on Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market. As of the time of this writing, these include the following markets:
- Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday?
- Is Luigi Mangione YouTube channel real?
- Luigi Mangione extradited to New York before 2025?
- Will Luigi Mangione tweet again by Friday?
- Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty?
According to the Polymarket users, there is a 92% chance the manifesto will be released by Friday. However, most people seem to agree that Mangione’s YouTube channel is fake, with only 1% believing otherwise. People were also pretty unanimous in saying that he will not tweet again by Friday, with there being only a 3% chance of that, according to the prediction market.
In the meantime, Polymarket results say there is a 53% chance of Mangione to be extradited by the end of the year. Perhaps most importantly, people believe that there is a 42% chance he will plead guilty.
Polymarket was founded in 2020 and gained a lot of traction during the recent election in the United States. While the platform has had its own fair share of controversy, with its CEO’s home getting raided by the FBI, it has been growing strong because of the unique nature of its offerings.
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